RACING AHEAD: Looking at Derby trends

Racing Ahead: with Tony McCormick
Racing Ahead: with Tony McCormick

Racing pundit Tony McCormick from and and racing radio station looks at some of the week’s racing stories.

The Investec Derby takes place on Saturday, with the world’s most prestigious flat race going off at 4.30pm.

Looking at the eight-year trends of the race going back to Frankie Dettori’s win aboard Authorized in 2007, we find that we need to be looking at a runner with an official rating of 108 or more, that’s a negative for the gambled-on GIOVANNI CANALETTO who is only rated 99, following defeat last time out.

The last eight winners were sent off in the Derby with a price no bigger than 7/1, not many shocks in the last eight years. That trend currently has favourite GOLDEN HORN, the Andrew Balding-trained ELM PARK, Irish raider ZAWRAQ and the recent purchase of Godolphin, JACK HOBBS, in the frame to lift the prize.

Seven of the last eight Derby winners had between two and four career starts - negative for Elm Park - had run in a Group 1 or 2 contest last time out, negative for Giovanni Canaletto, while they also finished in the first two last time out, another negative for Elm Park.

Six of the last eight winners of the Derby were drawn between three and 10, had an official rating of 113 or more - Elm Park is the only qualifier here, or, more interestingly were sired by either Galileo (New Approach 2008, Ruler Of The World 2013 and Australia 2014) or Montjeu (Authorized 2007, Pour Moi 2011 and Camelot 2012).

Galileo is represented by Giovanni Canaletto, while Montjeu has Hans Holbein in the race.

In between the wins of New Approach and Pour Moi, the Derby was won by the brilliant Sea The Stars in 2009, sired by the stallion Cape Cross, who has this year’s favourite in the shape of Golden Horn. 2010 winner Workforce, who won the race by seven lengths, was sired by Kings Best who has the 100/1 chance ROGUE RUNNER in the line-up on Saturday.

When taking in the figures above, you must remember, the trends lead us in a general, rather than specific, direction. It’s important not to be handcuffed to them, such that we ignore horses with strong form claims who may fail to tick a couple of boxes.